Startup Market Research and Opportunity Sizing

About Course

A large market number can make almost any startup look promising—especially when definitions, sources and assumptions are unclear. Founders often quote impressive industry totals that say little about the customers they can actually reach. This course shows learners how to research a market, assess evidence and build a realistic opportunity estimate that can withstand questions from partners, investors and management teams. You will define a focused research decision, evaluate secondary sources, gather primary evidence, segment customers and map competitors and alternatives. Practical exercises guide you through TAM, SAM and SOM, top-down and bottom-up calculations, reachable-customer estimates and base, upside and downside scenarios. Every number is linked to a visible source or assumption. By the end, you will become a more credible market analyst—able to explain the size, accessibility, uncertainty and strategic meaning of an opportunity. Successful learners receive a Scalelab Academy certificate, lifetime access and future updates, plus research briefs, source registers, segmentation maps, sizing models, report templates and course-specific AI tools.

Define a focused market-research decision and scope.
Find and evaluate credible secondary evidence.
Design primary market research to fill evidence gaps.
Segment a market and select an initial target.
Analyse competitors, substitutes, channels and barriers.
Define TAM, SAM and SOM consistently.
Build top-down and bottom-up market estimates.
Document sources, calculations and assumptions.
Estimate reachable customers and realistic adoption.
Build base, upside and downside opportunity scenarios.
Explain uncertainty and missing evidence.
Produce an evidence-based market recommendation.

Course Content

Section 1: Define the Market Research Decision
Start with the decision, scope, questions, boundaries, time horizon and evidence standards.

Research for a Decision
Define the Opportunity
Set Market Boundaries
Write Research Questions
Set Evidence Standards
Apply It: Research Brief

Section 2: Find and Evaluate Secondary Market Evidence
Locate and assess government, industry, company, academic, trade and database sources.

Section 3: Gather Primary Market Evidence
Fill evidence gaps through interviews, surveys, observation, experts and channel research.

Section 4: Segment and Define the Target Market
Divide a broad market by needs, behaviour, industry, size, geography, ability to pay and readiness.

Section 5: Analyse Competitors and Market Structure
Understand direct competitors, substitutes, concentration, pricing, channels and barriers.

Section 6: Calculate TAM, SAM and SOM
Build consistent top-down and bottom-up market estimates with transparent sources and assumptions.

Section 7: Build a Realistic Bottom-Up Opportunity Estimate
Estimate reachable customers, adoption, price, capacity, channels and timing under scenarios.

Section 8: Turn Research into an Opportunity Recommendation
Combine size, growth, need, competition, access, economics, uncertainty and risk into a decision.

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About Course

What Will You Learn?

Course Content

Section 1: Define the Market Research Decision Start with the decision, scope, questions, boundaries, time horizon and evidence standards.

Research for a Decision

Define the Opportunity

Set Market Boundaries

Write Research Questions

Set Evidence Standards

Apply It: Research Brief

Section 2: Find and Evaluate Secondary Market Evidence Locate and assess government, industry, company, academic, trade and database sources.

Build a Source Strategy

Use Official and Industry Data

Read Company and Competitor Sources

Check Definitions and Methodology

Assess Recency, Bias and Relevance

Apply It: Source Register

Section 3: Gather Primary Market Evidence Fill evidence gaps through interviews, surveys, observation, experts and channel research.

Identify Evidence Gaps

Choose a Primary Method

Design Questions and Samples

Research Buying Behaviour

Document and Protect Evidence

Apply It: Primary Evidence Summary

Section 4: Segment and Define the Target Market Divide a broad market by needs, behaviour, industry, size, geography, ability to pay and readiness.

Why Segmentation Matters

Choose Segmentation Variables

Create Segment Profiles

Assess Segment Attractiveness

Select the Initial Target

Apply It: Segmentation Map

Section 5: Analyse Competitors and Market Structure Understand direct competitors, substitutes, concentration, pricing, channels and barriers.

Identify Direct Competitors

Identify Alternatives and Substitutes

Compare Positioning and Pricing

Map Channels and Gatekeepers

Evaluate Barriers and Structure

Apply It: Competitor Landscape

Section 6: Calculate TAM, SAM and SOM Build consistent top-down and bottom-up market estimates with transparent sources and assumptions.

Purpose of TAM, SAM and SOM

Define the Market Consistently

Top-Down Sizing

Bottom-Up Sizing

Reconcile Different Estimates

Apply It: TAM–SAM–SOM Model

Section 7: Build a Realistic Bottom-Up Opportunity Estimate Estimate reachable customers, adoption, price, capacity, channels and timing under scenarios.

Start with Reachable Customers

Estimate Adoption and Conversion

Add Price and Purchase Frequency

Reflect Sales and Channel Capacity

Build Base, Upside and Downside Cases

Apply It: Opportunity Model

Section 8: Turn Research into an Opportunity Recommendation Combine size, growth, need, competition, access, economics, uncertainty and risk into a decision.

Synthesize Evidence

Assess Market Attractiveness

Explain Uncertainty and Gaps

Choose Enter, Test, Narrow, Delay or Reject

Use AI Responsibly

Build the Executive Narrative

Capstone: Market Opportunity Report